US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?
ActiveLiquidity $34.9K·Volume $33.6K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes26%No75%
Smart money leans
No
75% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
75%price75%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$22.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,851
72h +$35.6K
Smart money entered85¢75¢at 21:19(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy3h agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$34.9K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $22.3K riding on it.
The price of 75% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 85¢; the price was 75¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,851, +$35.6K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:19
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $427 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $578 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $427 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $578 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $57 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 7h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 8h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $98 |
| 8h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $98 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $31 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $7 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $8 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $7 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $8 |
| 8h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $31 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |