Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $40.2K·Volume $673.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes6%No94%
Smart money leans
No
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$6,072 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢94¢at 14:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$40.2K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $6,072 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 92¢ | $1,506 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $214 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 83¢ | $719 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,048 |
| 2w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $9 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $475 |
| 7w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $175 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $34 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $388 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 84¢ | $51 |
| 8w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $288 |
| 8w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $8 |
| 11w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8 |
| 11w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $277 |
| 12w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $633 |
| 12w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $568 |
| 12w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $2,151 |