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Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $51.4K·Volume $2.4M·Ends Sep 14, 2026
Price now:Yes44%No56%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:31computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
54% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
65%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
54%price54%model est.*
Smart wallets
10
$14.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$584
72h +$5,574
Smart money entered68¢54¢at 07:31Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesended(Sep 14, 2026)Liquidity$51.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

10 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $14.7K riding on it.

The price of 54% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 54¢ at this snapshot.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$584, +$5,574 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agokekkoneMidBuyYes47¢$20
1h agokekkoneMidBuyYes47¢$20
1h agokekkoneMidBuyYes46¢$4
1h agokekkoneMidBuyYes46¢$4
10h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo48¢$41
10h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo48¢$41
11h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo48¢$144
11h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo48¢$144
12h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo50¢$150
12h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo50¢$150
13h agokekkoneMidSellYes51¢$51
13h agokekkoneMidSellYes53¢$53
15h agokekkoneMidBuyYes48¢$48
18h agokekkoneMidBuyYes44¢$44
18h agokekkoneMidBuyYes44¢$44
18h agokekkoneMidBuyYes44¢$8
20h agokekkoneMidBuyYes51¢$51
20h agokekkoneMidBuyYes55¢$6
20h agokekkoneMidBuyYes55¢$50
20h agoDreamwireMidSellNo49¢$57
20h agokekkoneMidBuyYes51¢$51
20h agoDreamwireMidSellNo49¢$82
21h agokekkoneMidBuyYes55¢$55
21h agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$877
21h agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$117
21h agokekkoneMidBuyYes58¢$58
21h agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$56
21h agokekkoneMidBuyYes58¢$58
21h agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$113
22h agokekkoneMidBuyYes62¢$62
22h agokekkoneMidBuyYes62¢$12
23h agokekkoneMidBuyYes61¢$36
23h agokekkoneMidBuyYes61¢$14
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes63¢$63
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes64¢$64
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes63¢$63
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes64¢$64
1d agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$386
1d agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$386
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes60¢$60
1d agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$195
1d agokekkoneMidBuyYes60¢$60
1d agowhigTopBuyYes58¢$195
1d agoDreamwireMidBuyNo30¢$85
1d agoDreamwireMidBuyNo30¢$85
1d agoFakePollsTopSellNo29¢$131
1d agoFakePollsTopSellNo29¢$131
1d agoFakePollsTopSellNo30¢$164
1d agoCrypto-JoeTopBuyNo44¢$0
1d agoCrypto-JoeTopBuyNo44¢$0