Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $804.2K·Volume $6.8M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes13%No87%
Smart money leans
No
87% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$112.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$1,062
72h +$15.0K
Smart money entered87¢87¢at 21:59(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$804.2K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $112.1K riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$1,062, +$15.0K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $230 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $230 |
| 2h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $608 |
| 2h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $608 |
| 2h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $441 |
| 2h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $441 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,764 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 88¢ | $10,481 |
| 13h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $567 |
| 13h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $567 |
| 13h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $567 |
| 13h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $567 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $50 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $50 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $270 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $50 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $270 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $50 |
| 16h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $866 |
| 16h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $866 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,732 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,732 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,752 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,752 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,762 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,762 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 86¢ | $859 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $866 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $866 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 86¢ | $859 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $75 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $75 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $43 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $43 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $41 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $41 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $42 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $183 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $668 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $183 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $668 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $340 |
| 2d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $340 |