Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $19.9K·Volume $83.1K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes6%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$3,308 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$96
Smart money entered89¢95¢at 11:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$19.9K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,308 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$96 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $48 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $48 |
| 1w ago | UdonsanTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $44 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $237 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $63 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $551 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $166 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $74 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $516 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $209 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $39 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $31 |
| 5w ago | viniiTop | Sell | Yes | 7.8¢ | $139 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $260 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $929 |
| 7w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | No | 87¢ | $65 |
| 7w ago | viniiTop | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $214 |
| 7w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $96 |
| 7w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $64 |
| 7w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $325 |
| 7w ago | AnjunMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,343 |
| 7w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $258 |
| 7w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 4.5¢ | $194 |
| 11w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $0 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $0 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |