Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
ActiveLiquidity $475.6K·Volume $2.0M·Ends Nov 29, 2026
Price now:Yes66%No35%
Smart money leans
Yes
66% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.5pp
model above price
Consensus
74%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
66%price66%model est.*
Smart wallets
21
$80.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$8,005
72h +$15.9K
Smart money entered67¢66¢at 07:14(0% priced in)Edge left+0.5ppLast smart buy15h agoResolvesin 18d(Nov 29, 2026)Liquidity$475.6K
Explanation
21 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $80.8K riding on it.
The price of 66% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 67¢; the price was 66¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$8,005, +$15.9K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:14
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11h ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 35¢ | $88 |
| 11h ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 35¢ | $88 |
| 15h ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $1,300 |
| 16h ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 34¢ | $34 |
| 16h ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 34¢ | $34 |
| 16h ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $885 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $873 |
| 16h ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $237 |
| 16h ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $67 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $101 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $230 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $1,804 |
| 16h ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $1,743 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $69 |
| 16h ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 33¢ | $34 |
| 16h ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $536 |
| 16h ago | SheepTokenMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $274 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $82 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $82 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $1,907 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $1,907 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $411 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $411 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 66¢ | $330 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 66¢ | $330 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $212 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $212 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $660 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $660 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $25 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $116 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 33¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $50 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $611 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $660 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $139 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $99 |