Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $252.9K·Volume $16.8M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes16%No84%
Smart money leans
No
84% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
97%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$57.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$44.6K
72h +$62.7K
Smart money entered85¢84¢at 20:55(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy12h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$252.9K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $57.8K riding on it.
The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 85¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$44.6K, +$62.7K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:55
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $813 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $1,726 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $1,866 |
| 12h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8,380 |
| 12h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8,440 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $507 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 78¢ | $1,726 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $507 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $813 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $1,866 |
| 12h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8,380 |
| 12h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8,440 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 77¢ | $889 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $33 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $394 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $851 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $8 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $64 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $8,273 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $73 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $8,530 |
| 2d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $84 |
| 2d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $217 |
| 2d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $93 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $177 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $485 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $2,603 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $779 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $928 |
| 3d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $31 |
| 3d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $180 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $2,580 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $114 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $121 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $119 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $13 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $2,216 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $499 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $51 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,221 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $522 |
| 3d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $31 |
| 3d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $180 |