Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $274.7K·Volume $3.5M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$2,273 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered3.0¢2.1¢at 02:49(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$274.7K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,273 riding on it.
The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 3.0¢; the price was 2.1¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $30 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $53 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 3.9¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 3.9¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 4.2¢ | $21 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 4.9¢ | $25 |
| 3w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | Yes | 5.3¢ | $40 |