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TopPolymarket
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $898.7K
Quality score
0.635
Goodas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$60.7K
PnL 90d
+$183.8K
ROI 90d
+7%
on $2.5M deployed
Entry edge
53%
128 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$10.6M
24494 trades
Breadth 90d
581
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 12:52
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?No122.9K92¢100¢$122,807+$10.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No75.8K87¢92¢$69,394+$3,765
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No86.3K75¢77¢$66,768+$2,422
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No54.2K94¢99¢$53,544+$2,429
US recession by end of 2026?No40.4K86¢96¢$38,780+$4,174
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No38.3K86¢97¢$37,304+$4,208
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?No40.1K84¢88¢$35,445+$1,944
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes32.3K57¢93¢$30,041+$11.6K
Trump out as President before 2027?No28.2K95¢98¢$27,586+$648
Plague pandemic in 2026?No27.8K95¢99¢$27,409+$925
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes35.1K68¢68¢$24,076+$126
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No25K76¢89¢$22,381+$3,440
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes22K46¢98¢$21,627+$11.4K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?No24.7K85¢82¢$20,160-$875
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?No20.6K93¢98¢$20,077+$1,022
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No18.1K90¢97¢$17,663+$1,380
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?No20.6K68¢83¢$17,216+$3,254
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No15.4K87¢94¢$14,553+$1,230
Iran Nuke before 2027?No13K96¢98¢$12,722+$176
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No12.6K55¢93¢$11,742+$4,858
Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?No12.2K90¢93¢$11,259+$244
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes125.8K26¢8.5¢$10,692-$22.4K
Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?No10.7K79¢92¢$9,840+$1,380
Ebola pandemic in 2026?No8.3K97¢99¢$8,189+$140
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?No7.8K97¢98¢$7,685+$100
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?No7.8K96¢97¢$7,566+$75
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?No7.8K79¢91¢$7,015+$906
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No6.4K97¢99¢$6,343+$104
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?No6.3K94¢98¢$6,161+$254
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No5.4K95¢99¢$5,307+$209
Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?No5.4K79¢96¢$5,125+$887
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No5K94¢98¢$4,942+$210
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?No8.3K59¢54¢$4,442-$436
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No5.2K64¢85¢$4,367+$1,065
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No4.6K90¢94¢$4,318+$199
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No4.4K93¢98¢$4,269+$204
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?Yes51.8K8.9¢7.5¢$3,883-$735
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No4.1K86¢92¢$3,781+$259
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?No4.3K86¢83¢$3,624-$118
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes3.3K85¢93¢$3,111+$281
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?No3.1K91¢97¢$2,989+$170
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?No3K96¢99¢$2,979+$87
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes3.5K85¢84¢$2,973-$8
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?No3K92¢96¢$2,917+$122
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No3.3K41¢88¢$2,897+$1,531
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No3K92¢96¢$2,886+$133
Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?No3.2K68¢83¢$2,665+$455
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes3K74¢87¢$2,627+$366
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?No2.8K89¢91¢$2,511+$28
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?No2.3K98¢100¢$2,283+$40
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?Yes2K91¢94¢$1,889+$70
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No2K85¢89¢$1,799+$81
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes4.6K35¢38¢$1,776+$149
Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes2K78¢88¢$1,774+$192
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No2.3K73¢75¢$1,745+$55
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No2.7K74¢64¢$1,709-$269
Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?No1.6K94¢97¢$1,577+$45
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes1.7K88¢91¢$1,555+$51
No one announced as next James Bond?No1.6K80¢93¢$1,522+$221
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes111.1K1.0¢1.2¢$1,389+$234
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No1.5K85¢91¢$1,388+$94
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No1.4K76¢92¢$1,324+$234
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?Yes1.6K76¢81¢$1,297+$72
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?No1.2K97¢99¢$1,158+$23
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?No1.2K93¢96¢$1,149+$38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No1.2K96¢98¢$1,146+$23
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?No1.1K90¢97¢$1,072+$80
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Yes5.2K23¢21¢$1,063-$122
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?No1.1K96¢98¢$1,041+$15
Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?No1K90¢99¢$1,016+$83
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Yes20.7K8.8¢4.8¢$1,006-$818
Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No1.4K68¢71¢$976+$30
Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "slop"?No92692¢95¢$876+$23
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?No883.289¢94¢$830+$48
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?No1.1K68¢74¢$816+$56
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes1K76¢81¢$805+$45
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?No821.939¢95¢$785+$467
Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?No796.594¢97¢$774+$26
Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes77789¢93¢$723+$32
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No748.290¢96¢$717+$44
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes926.574¢77¢$709+$28
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No78287¢87¢$676-$5
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for North Korea by December 31?No67095¢98¢$654+$19
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?Yes1.4K39¢47¢$648+$111
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Iran by December 31?No654.995¢98¢$639+$18
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes63689¢99¢$632+$66
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes8.4K58¢7.5¢$627-$4,204
Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "slop"?No565.693¢96¢$543+$18
Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rage"?No52997¢97¢$512-$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No509.796¢98¢$501+$13
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?No51090¢97¢$495+$35
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?No50093¢98¢$489+$24
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by December 31, 2026?No50083¢97¢$485+$70
Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rage"?No49591¢97¢$479+$27
Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "slop"?No471.293¢99¢$469+$32
US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?No460.795¢97¢$449+$11
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No450.194¢99¢$444+$19
Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes447.394¢97¢$434+$15
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No50064¢85¢$425+$105
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?No42893¢93¢$398+$1
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No40091¢98¢$390+$26
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?No384.197¢98¢$375+$4
Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "bait"?No35093¢97¢$338+$12
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?No339.194¢96¢$326+$6
Will Merriam-Webster's 2026 Word of the Year contain "vibe"?No304.695¢97¢$295+$7
Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "vibe"?No314.390¢93¢$294+$10
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No302.670¢91¢$274+$63
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes2.3K26¢11¢$264-$332
Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "larp"?No257.892¢97¢$249+$12
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?No254.796¢97¢$247+$3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?No250.491¢97¢$242+$13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes33350¢69¢$228+$62
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes751.455¢30¢$225-$188
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No23195¢96¢$221+$3
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by November 30?Yes25180¢84¢$211+$11
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?Yes316.756¢65¢$204+$27
Trump impeached and removed before 2028?No246.382¢83¢$203+$2
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No20091¢99¢$197+$15
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No20090¢99¢$197+$17
Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "bait"?No20193¢96¢$193+$6
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?No1.1K30¢17¢$179-$135
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?No442.648¢40¢$179-$32
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?No182.287¢98¢$178+$20
Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?No20089¢87¢$173-$5
Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?No20058¢86¢$171+$55
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Yes2.4K51¢7.0¢$170-$1,066
Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?No198.888¢85¢$169-$5
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by June 30, 2027No178.689¢92¢$165+$6
Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes22277¢74¢$163-$8
Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?Yes1.6K32¢9.5¢$155-$369
Will Yaxel Lendeborg win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?No23692¢66¢$155-$62
Trump renames Lake Okeechobee to "Trump Lake" in 2026?No151.793¢97¢$147+$5
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?No151.989¢96¢$146+$11
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No20064¢66¢$131+$3
Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No15086¢84¢$125-$4
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?No531.890¢22¢$116-$363
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes70077¢17¢$116-$424
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?No11194¢100¢$111+$6
Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No431.417¢25¢$110+$37
Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?No11282¢97¢$108+$16
Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "rot"?No104.595¢96¢$101+$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes2.5K14¢3.9¢$97-$240
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes580.417¢17¢$96-$1
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?No107.560¢84¢$91+$26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes1.1K34¢8.0¢$86-$285
Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No11666¢75¢$86+$10
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes650.933¢13¢$85-$130
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No13058¢62¢$80+$4
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No9073¢84¢$75+$9
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No6592¢97¢$63+$3
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes465.132¢14¢$63-$86
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No6093¢98¢$59+$4
Iran nuclear test before 2027?No6091¢98¢$59+$4
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?No6367¢93¢$58+$16
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?No96.159¢61¢$58+$1
Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "vibe"?No62.592¢92¢$58+$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No11183¢49¢$54-$38
France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?No50.495¢98¢$49+$1
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?No5092¢97¢$49+$3
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No5094¢97¢$48+$1
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes3.5K1.6¢1.3¢$47-$10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No4890¢96¢$46+$3
Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?No270.872¢16¢$45-$150
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No44.589¢99¢$44+$5
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No4092¢98¢$39+$3
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No4081¢82¢$33+$1
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes5.5K1.0¢0.6¢$33-$21
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No3094¢98¢$29+$1
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No3094¢97¢$29+$1
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?No32.161¢89¢$29+$9
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?No26.896¢100¢$27+$1
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?No3078¢86¢$26+$2
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No2596¢99¢$25+$1
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No21.190¢98¢$21+$2
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?No2045¢96¢$19+$10
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31No2084¢94¢$19+$2
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No2090¢92¢$19+$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No2077¢93¢$19+$3
Iran leadership change by December 31?No2082¢92¢$18+$2
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?No2070¢85¢$17+$3
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?No16.391¢97¢$16+$1
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes1835¢87¢$16+$9
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Yes2076¢77¢$15+$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes4530¢28¢$13-$1
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?Yes1009.0¢13¢$13+$4
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?No11.192¢93¢$10+$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No10.199¢99¢$10+$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No1096¢99¢$10+$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1098¢99¢$10+$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No1080¢98¢$10+$2
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No1071¢98¢$10+$3
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?No1095¢98¢$10+$0
Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No1096¢95¢$9-$0
Will "I Play Rocky" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes2055¢45¢$9-$2
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Yes374.539¢2.2¢$8-$137
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes3526¢23¢$8-$1
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No3065¢26¢$8-$12
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No3041¢26¢$8-$5
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes3043¢25¢$7-$6
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?No2037¢36¢$7-$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes5011¢12¢$6+$1
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027?Yes5024¢13¢$6-$6
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes5522¢11¢$6-$6
Will Trump resign before 2027?No597¢98¢$5+$0
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Anthropic by December 31?No596¢97¢$5+$0
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?No591¢93¢$5+$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?No586¢87¢$4+$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes4210¢8.5¢$4-$1
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes39.628¢8.5¢$3-$8
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?Yes2517¢12¢$3-$1
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1022¢19¢$2-$0
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Yes109.0¢17¢$2+$1
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes356.4¢3.1¢$1-$1
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes4920¢2.1¢$1-$9
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No1.196¢99¢$1+$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?Yes510¢19¢$1+$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes2012¢3.2¢$1-$2
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes253.6¢1.5¢$0-$1
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes716¢1.7¢$0-$1
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 9?Yes1.7K1.6¢0.0¢$0-$27