Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $64.7K·Volume $478.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$20.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$178
Smart money entered83¢92¢at 18:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$64.7K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $20.6K riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$178 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $48 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $48 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $39 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $575 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $604 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $209 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $209 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $209 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $614 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $3,992 |
| 1w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $94 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $28 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3,169 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $49 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $84 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $40 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $39 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $39 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $17 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | touristsMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $25 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $279 |
| 2w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $279 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $279 |