US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $63.6K·Volume $19.8K·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes69%No32%
Smart money leans
No
32% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
32%price31%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$315 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$724
72h +$908
Smart money entered34¢32¢at 21:47Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 20d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$63.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $315 riding on it.
The price of 32% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 34¢; the price was 32¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $315 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$724, +$908 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 32¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 32¢ | $2 |
| 5h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 34¢ | $159 |
| 5h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 34¢ | $159 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 34¢ | $11 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 35¢ | $175 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 34¢ | $11 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 35¢ | $175 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 39¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $200 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 39¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 64¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 64¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $307 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $162 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 34¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $307 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 38¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $196 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $325 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $325 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 40¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 40¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $43 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $43 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $34 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $120 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $120 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $280 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $414 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 42¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 38¢ | $211 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 38¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 39¢ | $216 |