Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
ActiveLiquidity $4,545·Volume $106.1K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes76%No24%
Smart money leans
Yes
77% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
89%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
77%price77%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,135 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered65¢77¢at 07:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$4,545
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,135 riding on it.
The price of 77% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 65¢; the price was 77¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,135 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $353 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $141 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $74 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 74¢ | $261 |
| 5w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $190 |
| 6w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $37 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $345 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $165 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $21 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $11 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 39¢ | $38 |
| 9w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $111 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $78 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $102 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $102 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $133 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $20 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | SagandMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $11 |