NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $42.7K·Volume $171.8K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$17.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,204
72h +$4,204
Smart money entered95¢96¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$42.7K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $17.6K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,204, +$4,204 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $122 |
| 4h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $122 |
| 8h ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $3,917 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $3,064 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1,926 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $66 |
| 5d ago | aenews2Mid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $116 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $4,825 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $789 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $65 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $102 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $238 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $48 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $376 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $103 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $380 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $190 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1,325 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | yen4uMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $206 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $73 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $113 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $174 |
| 2w ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $210 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $658 |