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Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $85.6K·Volume $11.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:14computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
93%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$6,922 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered77¢99¢at 07:14(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$85.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $6,922 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:14
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
5d agojustme003MidSellNo98¢$306
4w agoqizhan1MidSellYes2.8¢$1
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$7,193
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$70
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$83
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$77
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$36
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$60
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$43
7w agoSlenderManMidSellNo96¢$2,028
7w agowhigTopBuyNo90¢$80
7w agowhigTopBuyNo90¢$275
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$63
7w agowhigTopBuyNo90¢$594
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$2,581
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$90
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$751
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$4,510
7w agoSlenderManMidBuyNo90¢$1,010
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo95¢$236
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo91¢$182
7w agoqizhan1MidBuyYes9.1¢$3
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo91¢$55
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo91¢$273
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo87¢$38
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo90¢$271
7w agoTBill1MidBuyNo90¢$450
7w agoTBill1MidBuyYes4.2¢$70
12w agoCarMidSellYes5.0¢$102