Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $433.4K·Volume $78.4M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes9%No91%
Smart money leans
No
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
11
$916.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$20
72h +$43.2K
Smart money entered78¢92¢at 13:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$433.4K
Explanation
11 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $916.3K riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$20, +$43.2K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 13:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $19 |
| 3h ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $10 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $12 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $9 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $30 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $0 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $60 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $609 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $609 |
| 18h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1,080 |
| 18h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 19h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $0 |
| 19h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $2 |
| 20h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $97 |
| 20h ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 91¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $9,234 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $9,234 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 90¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 90¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 89¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,964 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,964 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $7,150 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $7,150 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $3,561 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $3,561 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $246 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $348 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $348 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,050 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,050 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | No | 88¢ | $166 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $193 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $193 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $189 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $8 |