Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $475.1K·Volume $46.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$882 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered98¢98¢at 14:09(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$475.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $882 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $882 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 98¢ | $38 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 98¢ | $789 |
| 4w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 98¢ | $206 |
| 4w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 98¢ | $446 |
| 9w ago | 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $5,778 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $292 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $130 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $290 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $25 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $20 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $101 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $3 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $303 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $506 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $109 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $463 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $540 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $47 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $38 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $240 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $3,108 |
| 10w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $6,844 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $27 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $38 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $28 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $12 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $27 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $14 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $17 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $2 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $385 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $25 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $438 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $20 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $107 |
| 11w ago | stupid22Top | Sell | No | 96¢ | $33 |