Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $1.7M·Volume $45.4M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,441 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$59.0K
Smart money entered92¢98¢at 22:31Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$1.7M
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,441 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $1,441 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$59.0K on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 22:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $29,550 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $29,550 |
| 3d ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $9,760 |
| 1w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,095 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $170 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $6 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $7 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $12 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $22 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $598 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $22 |
| 5w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $110 |
| 6w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $962 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,306 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $23 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $6 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $11 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $11 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $220 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $217 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $169 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $633 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $8,991 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $210 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $143 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $220 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $4,780 |
| 7w ago | SlenderManTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $3,572 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 95¢ | $5,151 |