Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $57.3K·Volume $1.8M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$361 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered31¢96¢at 17:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$57.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $361 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 31¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $361 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 92¢ | $2,152 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 89¢ | $682 |
| 3w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,794 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 89¢ | $12 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $421 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $351 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $32 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $24 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 81¢ | $49 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $272 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $27 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $18 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $79 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $14 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 80¢ | $61 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 79¢ | $354 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $55 |
| 8w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $701 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $21 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $44 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 78¢ | $324 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $15 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $22 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $16 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $16 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $15 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $4 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $9 |
| 9w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $100 |
| 10w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $3,926 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $1 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $4 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $1 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $125 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $11 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $65 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $5 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $10 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $79 |
| 10w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $95 |