US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $218.3K·Volume $464.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No97%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$18.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$165.5K
Smart money entered95¢96¢at 00:17(76% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$218.3K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $18.3K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 76% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$165.5K on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:17
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 4.2¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $388 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $388 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 4.2¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $265 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $265 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $11,764 |
| 1d ago | dromedaryyMid | Buy | Yes | 7.5¢ | $3,040 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $18,600 |
| 1d ago | dromedaryyMid | Buy | Yes | 5.8¢ | $1,496 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $18,800 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5,215 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5,215 |
| 1d ago | dromedaryyMid | Buy | Yes | 5.8¢ | $1,496 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $18,800 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $8,551 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $8,551 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $922 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $922 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $23,971 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $22 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $22 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $151 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $151 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $4,830 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $4,830 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,063 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,180 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,180 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $786 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $786 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,049 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,049 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,398 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,398 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,864 |
| 1d ago | pilimiliMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $35 |