France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $68.9K·Volume $104.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,908 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢98¢at 06:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$68.9K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,908 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.