Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
ActiveLiquidity $68.5K·Volume $456.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
11
$33.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,777
72h +$1,777
Smart money entered88¢100¢at 02:30(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy15h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$68.5K
Explanation
11 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $33.7K riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,777, +$1,777 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:30
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $887 |
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $887 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $4,972 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | No | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | No | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | No | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 0.5¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 0.9¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $256 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $135 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $280 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $1,042 |
| 1w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 7.0¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $153 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $237 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $787 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $112 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $5,120 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $5,655 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 87¢ | $772 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 87¢ | $3,871 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $279 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $83 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $952 |
| 1w ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $1,104 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | SAPolitcsSeerMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $89 |