Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $26.6K·Volume $319.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes23%No78%
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,567 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered71¢78¢at 21:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$26.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,567 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 71¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,567 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $224 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $127 |
| 6d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $149 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $88 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $88 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 71¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 68¢ | $894 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 72¢ | $72 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 73¢ | $73 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $37 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $74 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 67¢ | $32 |
| 3w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $26 |
| 3w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $19 |