Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $543.4K·Volume $29.7M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
17
$379.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,231
72h -$8,540
Smart money entered90¢97¢at 06:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$543.4K
Explanation
17 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $379.8K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,231, -$8,540 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $6 |
| 4h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $19 |
| 4h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $366 |
| 6h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $27 |
| 9h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $87 |
| 9h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $33 |
| 12h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,473 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $289 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $289 |
| 1d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 2.6¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 2.6¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,708 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,708 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $749 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $749 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $347 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $50 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $50 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $150 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $313 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,442 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,444 |
| 2d ago | debasedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $16,960 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $2,387 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $236 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $2,987 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $991 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $751 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $4,865 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $4,870 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $973 |
| 3d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $934 |
| 6d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $46 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $13,265 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $12,806 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1,745 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $961 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1,928 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1,920 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $80 |