Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $116.8K·Volume $3.7M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$65.5K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered93¢98¢at 14:09(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$116.8K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $65.5K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $65.5K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,400 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $3,840 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1,369 |
| 2w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5,727 |
| 2w ago | GrokEnjoyerTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $689 |
| 2w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2,406 |
| 4w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $3,502 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $7,600 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,418 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $6,171 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $7,600 |
| 5w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $4,750 |
| 5w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 94¢ | $815 |
| 5w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 94¢ | $6 |
| 5w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 94¢ | $119 |
| 6w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $2,350 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $837 |
| 8w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1,880 |