Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
ActiveLiquidity $140.9K·Volume $10.5M·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
22
$742.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$3,025
72h +$48.4K
Smart money entered48¢98¢at 12:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy18h agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$140.9K
Explanation
22 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $742.4K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 48¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$3,025, +$48.4K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 12:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $1,649 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $1,649 |
| 18h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $73 |
| 20h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $4 |
| 21h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $93 |
| 21h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $47 |
| 21h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $591 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $591 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $2,235 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $915 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $22 |
| 1d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $27,943 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,478 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1,476 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $22 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | No | 1.4¢ | $92 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,950 |
| 1d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $526 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1,022 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1,782 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $8,125 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $10,130 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1,153 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $162 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $51 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $455 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $195 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $217 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $218 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $218 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $3,273 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $2,186 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $493 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $120 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $493 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $382 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $529 |
| 4d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $97 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $445 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $62 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $469 |
| 4d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $4,841 |
| 5d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $1,007 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $114,075 |
| 5d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $1,107 |
| 5d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1,021 |