Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $120.1K·Volume $1.6M·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes8%No93%
Smart money leans
No
93% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
66%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$117.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$581
Smart money entered85¢93¢at 02:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$120.1K
Explanation
9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $117.1K riding on it.
The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 85¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$581 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $202 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $202 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $448 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $110 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $449 |
| 3d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $81 |
| 3d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $81 |
| 3d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $129 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $497 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $22 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $73 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $183 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $37 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $392 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $392 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $30 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $14 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $392 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $48 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $37 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $156 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $22 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $156 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $156 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $37 |
| 4d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $37 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $325 |
| 4d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $40 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 89¢ | $325 |