Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $3,455·Volume $26.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes10%No91%
Smart money leans
No
91% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
91%price91%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$856 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$280
72h +$656
Smart money entered89¢91¢at 04:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,455
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $856 riding on it.
The price of 91% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 91¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $856 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$280, +$656 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $42 |
| 6h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $40 |
| 12h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $100 |
| 12h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $91 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $91 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $89 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $88 |
| 3d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $180 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $89 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $93 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $32 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $34 |
| 4d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 5d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $16 |
| 6d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $17 |