TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?

ActiveLiquidity $3,455·Volume $26.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes10%No91%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 04:56computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
91% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
91%price91%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$856 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$280
72h +$656
Smart money entered89¢91¢at 04:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,455
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $856 riding on it.

The price of 91% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 91¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $856 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$280, +$656 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 04:56
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
6h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$42
6h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$40
12h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$100
12h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$100
1d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo90¢$91
1d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo90¢$91
1d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo89¢$18
1d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo89¢$18
1d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo89¢$12
2d agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo90¢$18
2d agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo90¢$18
2d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo88¢$89
2d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo88¢$88
3d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$17
4d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo90¢$180
4d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$89
4d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo91¢$93
4d agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo89¢$32
4d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo84¢$34
4d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$20
5d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$14
5d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$4
5d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$6
5d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo85¢$6
6d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo84¢$17
6d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo84¢$16
6d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo84¢$17