Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
ActiveLiquidity $41.1K·Volume $328.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$268 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$229
72h +$229
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 21:14(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy14h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$41.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $268 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $268 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$229, +$229 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:14
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14h ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $228 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 2.7¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | PondermintTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $47 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $112 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $13 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $47 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $27 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $48 |
| 6d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $127 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | No | 89¢ | $119 |
| 1w ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $39 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $142 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $158 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | klli27Mid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $141 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $59 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | PondermintTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $45 |
| 2w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $75 |
| 3w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $73 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $50 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $18 |
| 3w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $1,022 |
| 3w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $342 |
| 3w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $27 |
| 3w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $27 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $19 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 27¢ | $59 |
| 10w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $4 |
| 11w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $105 |