US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $67.5K·Volume $26.7K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes81%No20%
Smart money leans
Yes
81% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
65%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
81%price80%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,225 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$18
72h +$428
Smart money entered76¢81¢at 20:07Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$67.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is somewhat betting on "Yes", with $1,225 riding on it.
The price of 81% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 76¢; the price was 81¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $1,225 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$18, +$428 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:07
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $9 |
| 12h ago | pIebeTop | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 20¢ | $617 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 21¢ | $420 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 21¢ | $420 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $3,173 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 23¢ | $44 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 23¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 23¢ | $68 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 21¢ | $630 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 22¢ | $220 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 20¢ | $100 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 20¢ | $185 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 20¢ | $185 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 19¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 18¢ | $1,199 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | klli27Mid | Sell | No | 13¢ | $29 |
| 2d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $49 |
| 2d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $46 |