Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $85.9K·Volume $2.6M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
83%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$24.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered92¢97¢at 06:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$85.9K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $24.1K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $5,530 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,900 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $53 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $189 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $202 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $78 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $998 |
| 5d ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $160 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,900 |
| 1w ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $99 |
| 1w ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | pakukudolphiMid | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $522 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | pakukudolphiMid | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | pakukudolphiMid | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $866 |
| 3w ago | eCashTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $930 |
| 3w ago | eCashTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $57 |
| 3w ago | eCashTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $55 |
| 3w ago | eCashTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $583 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $106 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | pakukudolphiMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $1,400 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $17 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $60 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $233 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $300 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $16 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $16 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $12 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $259 |
| 5w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $930 |
| 5w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $4,650 |
| 6w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1,052 |
| 6w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $21 |
| 6w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $188 |
| 6w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $350 |
| 6w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $15 |