US x Yemen ceasefire continues through December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $3,188·Volume $7,505·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes86%No14%
Smart money leans
Yes
86% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
86%price86%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$2,261 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered74¢86¢at 17:35(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$3,188
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,261 riding on it.
The price of 86% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 86¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,261 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.