Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $222.5K·Volume $1.3M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$273.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$5,350
72h +$6,995
Smart money entered94¢97¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$222.5K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $273.4K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$5,350, +$6,995 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $1 |
| 1h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $10 |
| 1h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $17 |
| 3h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $3 |
| 8h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $19 |
| 8h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $19 |
| 9h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,452 |
| 9h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $355 |
| 9h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $355 |
| 11h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,418 |
| 11h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,418 |
| 12h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $159 |
| 12h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $16 |
| 12h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $159 |
| 13h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $0 |
| 16h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $51 |
| 16h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $93 |
| 18h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $245 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $200 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $1,600 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $1,600 |
| 1d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |