US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
ActiveLiquidity $45.5K·Volume $20.2K·Ends Nov 22, 2026
Price now:Yes60%No41%
Smart money leans
Yes
60% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
56%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
60%price60%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$295 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$595
72h +$595
Smart money entered59¢60¢at 21:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesin 12d(Nov 22, 2026)Liquidity$45.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is narrowly leaning toward betting on "Yes", with $295 riding on it.
The price of 60% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 60¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $295 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$595, +$595 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $295 |
| 5h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 59¢ | $295 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $223 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 46¢ | $186 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 44¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 43¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $180 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $180 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $168 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 51¢ | $211 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $211 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 51¢ | $211 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 49¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 49¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 49¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 51¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 51¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $30 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $1,196 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $25 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $24 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 49¢ | $245 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $2,120 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $227 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $8 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $150 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 48¢ | $82 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 46¢ | $690 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $136 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 50¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 48¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Sell | No | 47¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $204 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $204 |