Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $69.0K·Volume $3.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes7%No94%
Smart money leans
No
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
57%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,153 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered79¢94¢at 06:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$69.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are narrowly leaning toward betting on "No", with $1,153 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,153 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $255 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 6d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $113 |
| 2w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $900 |
| 7w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $465 |
| 7w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $460 |
| 8w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $384 |
| 9w ago | justme003Mid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $870 |
| 12w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $215 |
| 12w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $5 |
| 12w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $195 |