China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $32.6K·Volume $594.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes12%No89%
Smart money leans
No
89% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
87%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
89%price89%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$72.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$1,455
72h -$1,710
Smart money entered69¢89¢at 06:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$32.6K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $72.7K riding on it.
The price of 89% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 69¢; the price was 89¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$1,455, -$1,710 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $408 |
| 16h ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $408 |
| 16h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $477 |
| 16h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $100 |
| 17h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $33 |
| 21h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $36 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $100 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $89 |
| 3d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $9 |
| 4d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $92 |
| 4d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $17 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $73 |
| 5d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $181 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $100 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $60 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $174 |
| 6d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $50 |
| 6d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $647 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $349 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $68 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $113 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $220 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $67 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $1,550 |
| 1w ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 82¢ | $23 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $105 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $878 |
| 1w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $0 |