Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
ActiveLiquidity $94.3K·Volume $1.7M·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
74%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$4,024 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$772
Smart money entered2.0¢1.4¢at 12:52(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$94.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $4,024 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 2.0¢; the price was 1.4¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $4,024 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$772 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 12:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $275 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $214 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $206 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $23 |
| 1d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $22 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $541 |
| 2d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $624 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $428 |
| 2d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $445 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | mr.oziTop | Sell | Yes | 1.5¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $422 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,186 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $218 |
| 3d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $49 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $521 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $99 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $197 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $950 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $219 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $857 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | HorribleWorkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $6,210 |
| 5d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 5.8¢ | $49 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $908 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $4,838 |
| 5d ago | pIebeTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $183 |
| 5d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $64 |
| 5d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 9.4¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | 8DDDTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $33 |
| 6d ago | 8DDDTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $32 |
| 6d ago | 8DDDTop | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $32 |
| 6d ago | betwickMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2,370 |
| 6d ago | 8DDDTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $1,122 |