Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $87.8K·Volume $514.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$11.2K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered93¢98¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$87.8K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $11.2K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $11.2K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | whigTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $3,880 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $198 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $1,291 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,264 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $4,650 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $186 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $558 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $3,720 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $4,650 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1,249 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1,880 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $349 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $157 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $78 |
| 11w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $47 |
| 11w ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $940 |