TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $55.3K·Volume $2.2M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:06computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$2,695 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,733
Smart money entered93¢97¢at 07:06(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$55.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,695 riding on it.

The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,733 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:06
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d agojustme003MidBuyNo97¢$117
2d agojustme003MidBuyNo97¢$1,609
5d ago4751346MidSellNo94¢$94
2w ago4751346MidBuyNo91¢$910
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$902
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$180
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$180
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$540
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$2,653
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo90¢$513
2w agoTBill1MidBuyNo85¢$4,692
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$314
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$178
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$60
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$1,278
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$70
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$2
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$20
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$23
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo93¢$20
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$1,009
2w agokekkoneMidSellNo87¢$628
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$95
2w agoTBill1MidSellNo91¢$910
2w agokekkoneMidBuyNo83¢$28
2w agokekkoneMidBuyNo84¢$168
2w agoTBill1MidBuyNo86¢$355
2w agoTBill1MidBuyNo86¢$8
2w agoTBill1MidBuyNo86¢$31
2w agoTBill1MidBuyNo86¢$123
3w agokekkoneMidBuyNo88¢$176
3w agoTBill1MidBuyNo89¢$702
3w agoTBill1MidBuyNo89¢$343
3w agoTBill1MidBuyNo89¢$23
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$24
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$1
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$69
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$92
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$196
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$196
3w agoTBill1MidSellNo92¢$196
3w agokekkoneMidBuyNo83¢$151
3w agokekkoneMidBuyNo83¢$15
3w agokekkoneMidBuyNo82¢$72
3w agoTBill1MidBuyNo78¢$2,135
3w agoTBill1MidBuyNo77¢$503
3w agoVespucciiMidBuyNo75¢$150