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NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $93.3K·Volume $3.8M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes10%No90%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:33computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
10% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
67%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
10%price10%model est.*
Smart wallets
12
$12.2K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,220
72h +$1,445
Smart money entered21¢10¢at 07:33Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$93.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

12 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $12.2K riding on it.

The price of 10% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 21¢; the price was 10¢ at this snapshot.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,220, +$1,445 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:33
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes9.0¢$3
4h agoUdonsanTopBuyNo89¢$40
4h agoUdonsanTopBuyNo89¢$40
9h agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$248
9h agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$248
9h agocongoterrierMidBuyYes13¢$287
9h agocongoterrierMidBuyYes13¢$287
9h agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$406
9h agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$406
9h agoRafael88TopSellNo89¢$1,279
9h agoRafael88TopSellNo89¢$1,279
11h ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$100
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$12
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$100
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$12
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$100
1d agoUdonsanTopSellNo87¢$87
1d agoRafael88TopBuyNo89¢$1,000
1d agoRafael88TopBuyNo89¢$1,000
1d agoRafael88TopSellNo87¢$933
1d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$259
1d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$259
1d agoRafael88TopSellNo87¢$933
2d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes10¢$1
3d agoponydsbMidBuyYes12¢$71
3d agoRafael88TopBuyNo88¢$523
3d agoRafael88TopSellNo87¢$962
4d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$3,531
4d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$3,617
4d agocongoterrierMidSellYes13¢$650
5d agoRafael88TopBuyNo88¢$1,500
5d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$163
5d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$172
5d agoSlenderManMidBuyNo86¢$434
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$46
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$338
6d agoMeckyMidBuyYes12¢$12
6d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$479
6d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$91
6d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$0
6d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes12¢$30
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$4
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$2
6d agopbshineMidBuyYes12¢$116
6d agopbshineMidBuyYes12¢$124
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$118
6d agononkenny90MidBuyNo88¢$65
6d agononkenny90MidBuyNo88¢$16
6d agoaenews2MidBuyYes11¢$4
6d agononkenny90MidBuyNo88¢$213