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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $154.5K·Volume $2.1M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes8%No93%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 18:15computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
93% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
72%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$42.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered83¢93¢at 18:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$154.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $42.6K riding on it.

The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 83¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Delayed 1h · as of 18:15
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w ago0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05MidSellYes9.1¢$933
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes13¢$302
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes13¢$996
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes13¢$2
1w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$92
1w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$90
1w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes15¢$86
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes12¢$10
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes12¢$48
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes12¢$48
1w agolastminwinTopBuyYes12¢$1,832
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$0
2w agoLulaVaiPerderTopBuyNo86¢$2,029
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$5
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$5
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$6
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes14¢$2
2w agoLulaVaiPerderTopSellNo85¢$677
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes15¢$1
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes15¢$1
2w agoLulaVaiPerderTopBuyNo84¢$6,665
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$0
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$18
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$27
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$27
2w agomr.oziTopSellNo81¢$3,241
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$6
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$6
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$3
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$0
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$3
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes16¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$2
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyYes17¢$1
2w ago0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05MidSellYes15¢$676
3w agomr.oziTopBuyNo84¢$869
3w agomr.oziTopBuyNo84¢$252
3w agomr.oziTopBuyNo84¢$105
3w agomr.oziTopBuyNo84¢$1,680
3w ago0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05MidBuyYes15¢$879