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cocococococo

ProbationPolymarket
0xbad26fe5458e6219cec3e40272760e275e835296
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $84.1K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$40.8K
PnL 90d
+$22.1K
ROI 90d
+6%
on $369.7K deployed
Entry edge
51%
170 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$1.4M
8448 trades
Breadth 90d
748
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 14:08
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No8.1K94¢98¢$7,980+$352
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No8.3K58¢65¢$5,407+$608
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes4.1K96¢98¢$4,043+$93
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes19.6K13¢19¢$3,702+$1,246
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No3.2K79¢98¢$3,174+$621
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No2.8K93¢98¢$2,730+$142
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes3.2K75¢86¢$2,720+$353
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes2.8K32¢98¢$2,719+$1,839
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No2.6K83¢98¢$2,492+$382
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No2.8K83¢83¢$2,291-$14
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No2K93¢97¢$1,961+$89
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No2.1K91¢94¢$1,932+$70
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No1.8K88¢99¢$1,822+$199
Rangers vs. OilersRangers4.4K40¢40¢$1,755-$22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No2.3K67¢74¢$1,732+$176
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2.2K67¢67¢$1,500+$11
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No1.4K96¢98¢$1,342+$26
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?No1.3K87¢100¢$1,327+$174
Avalanche vs. Maple LeafsAvalanche2.2K59¢59¢$1,300-$11
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes4.3K14¢27¢$1,165+$572
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?No1.1K81¢99¢$1,103+$195
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes1.1K8.3¢97¢$1,079+$986
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?Yes1.1K1.0¢95¢$1,061+$1,050
Islanders vs. SharksIslanders1.8K56¢56¢$1,023+$9
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No988.585¢99¢$978+$138
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Yes1.2K78¢82¢$955+$50
Will Dario Amodei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No994.992¢95¢$948+$36
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes25.2K1.6¢3.7¢$945+$530
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 9%-12%?No886.776¢100¢$886+$212
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1.1K81¢82¢$884+$16
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes5.4K12¢16¢$868+$206
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes811.167¢95¢$775+$231
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?No77377¢100¢$773+$177
Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes78282¢88¢$688+$47
Iran leadership change by December 31?No733.757¢92¢$675+$259
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?No671.591¢100¢$671+$61
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No684.244¢96¢$655+$356
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes652.166¢97¢$634+$206
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes624.124¢99¢$617+$465
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes5K2.3¢12¢$586+$468
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No819.860¢67¢$553+$59
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No55591¢97¢$538+$33
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No53984¢99¢$534+$82
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No55576¢96¢$533+$111
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No593.158¢88¢$522+$177
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Yes505.78.3¢98¢$497+$455
Weed rescheduled by December 31?No533.182¢90¢$481+$45
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No477.156¢97¢$464+$198
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 6%-9%?No444.182¢100¢$444+$80
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1.2K34¢38¢$434+$46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No55546¢75¢$413+$158
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?Yes3.4K18¢12¢$412-$196
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 0%-5%?No495.373¢83¢$411+$49
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes4788.3¢77¢$368+$328
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No35283¢93¢$327+$34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No382.563¢85¢$327+$84
Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?No51554¢63¢$322+$46
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No978.833¢32¢$318-$5
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?No882.437¢35¢$313-$13
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Yes1.5K36¢21¢$309-$214
Wild vs. CanadiensCanadiens54648¢49¢$265+$3
Ossoff ahead of Newsom on November 30?Yes255.976¢98¢$251+$57
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes91.4K2.0¢0.2¢$229-$1,592
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No259.765¢88¢$229+$58
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No22286¢97¢$216+$25
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?No22280¢97¢$215+$38
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2.3K0.6¢9.2¢$213+$198
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes15.4K2.1¢1.3¢$208-$116
Will iShowSpeed Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award?Yes225.569¢85¢$192+$36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes1.8K75¢9.5¢$170-$1,180
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?No169.165¢100¢$169+$59
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes1.2K12¢13¢$151+$6
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes3.9K13¢3.7¢$148-$356
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?Yes2958.0¢49¢$145+$122
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No13670¢99¢$135+$39
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Yes1.7K39¢7.5¢$131-$557
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes1.2K13¢9.9¢$115-$40
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes55529¢20¢$108-$53
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?No11185¢95¢$105+$11
Will Kai Cenat Win the 2026 Streamer of the Year Award?No11195¢94¢$104-$1
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢1.2¢$100+$49
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes4788.3¢20¢$96+$56
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2.5K3.9¢3.7¢$93-$3
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4.5K0.6¢1.9¢$88+$59
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3.1K0.9¢2.6¢$83+$54
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes2.8K7.3¢2.9¢$82-$125
Devils vs. JetsDevils138.558¢58¢$81+$1
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.9¢$76+$25
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes3.9K0.8¢1.8¢$73+$43
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?No72.386¢100¢$72+$10
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2.7K1.2¢2.5¢$68+$35
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?Yes70.420¢97¢$68+$54
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.8¢$64+$13
Will Bad Bunny be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No59.593¢97¢$58+$3
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes1.4K41¢4.1¢$58-$516
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No55.691¢96¢$53+$3
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes648.846¢8.0¢$52-$249
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes22921¢21¢$47-$1
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes2.7K10¢1.6¢$45-$238
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes1.7K18¢2.6¢$45-$260
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes1.3K42¢3.4¢$43-$486
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1.3K0.6¢3.1¢$41+$32
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes522.65.0¢7.6¢$40+$14
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?No36.496¢100¢$36+$1
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No3599¢100¢$35+$0
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No43.766¢79¢$35+$6
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes6.1K0.7¢0.5¢$33-$7
Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Yes20415¢16¢$33+$2
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3K0.6¢1.0¢$32+$12
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?Yes657.27.9¢4.6¢$30-$22
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 18% or more?Yes302.0¢84¢$25+$24
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1.4K0.6¢1.7¢$24+$15
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2.8K1.6¢0.8¢$24-$21
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4K0.6¢0.5¢$22-$4
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes603.14.0¢3.5¢$21-$3
Will Lance Oppenheim win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes213.19.0¢9.1¢$19+$0
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4K0.7¢0.4¢$18-$8
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4K0.6¢0.4¢$18-$8
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2K0.6¢0.8¢$17+$4
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6.1K0.7¢0.2¢$15-$25
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.1¢$12-$39
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.1¢$12-$39
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?No9.897¢100¢$10+$0
Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No1092¢84¢$8-$1
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No51.615¢16¢$8+$0
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes4.9K0.2¢0.1¢$7-$2
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2K0.7¢0.3¢$7-$7
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes4.4K1.5¢0.1¢$7-$60
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?No1.1K43¢0.5¢$6-$472
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes2.2K44¢0.2¢$5-$933
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Yes55.551¢8.5¢$5-$24
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 15%-18%?Yes36.46.2¢12¢$4+$2
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes8K0.6¢0.0¢$4-$47
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Yes327.516¢1.0¢$3-$48
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes1.1K8.3¢0.3¢$3-$89
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes2K0.6¢0.1¢$3-$10
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?Yes2008.3¢1.4¢$3-$14
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?Yes1.1K8.3¢0.2¢$3-$90
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4K0.6¢0.0¢$2-$24
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3.9K0.6¢0.0¢$2-$22
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?No1.794¢100¢$2+$0
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes9941.1¢0.1¢$1-$9
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Yes505.78.3¢0.1¢$1-$41
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes1.1K8.3¢0.0¢$1-$92
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?Yes1.1K8.3¢0.0¢$1-$92
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes970.98.3¢0.0¢$0-$80
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes195.40.7¢0.1¢$0-$1
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1871.1¢0.1¢$0-$2
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1111.0¢0.3¢$0-$1
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?Yes505.78.3¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 18% or more?Yes505.78.3¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6% or more?Yes505.78.3¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?Yes505.78.3¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Yes505.78.3¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes4788.3¢0.1¢$0-$40
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes4788.3¢0.1¢$0-$40
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 12% or more?Yes4788.3¢0.1¢$0-$40
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes4788.3¢0.1¢$0-$40
Will the Republican Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes4788.3¢0.1¢$0-$40
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes201.0¢1.1¢$0+$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes277.418¢0.0¢$0-$50
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes156.27.0¢0.0¢$0-$11
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 12%-15%?Yes12015¢0.1¢$0-$18
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes0.155¢33¢$0-$0
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes95.320¢0.0¢$0-$19
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%?Yes7727¢0.1¢$0-$21
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes203.0¢0.1¢$0-$1
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes201.0¢0.1¢$0-$0
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes20.612¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes7.8K8.4¢0.0¢$0-$655
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes1.4K8.5¢0.0¢$0-$117
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes1.6K60¢0.0¢$0-$957
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes685.99.2¢0.0¢$0-$63
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes2.5K43¢0.0¢$0-$1,059
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-03 House seat?Yes2504.5¢0.0¢$0-$11
Flyers vs. RangersFlyers716.941¢0.0¢$0-$294
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No5.4K30¢0.0¢$0-$1,617
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes914.529¢0.0¢$0-$268
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Yes347.512¢0.0¢$0-$42
Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Panthers4.4K47¢0.0¢$0-$2,100
Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?No286.321¢0.0¢$0-$60
Hurricanes vs. PredatorsHurricanes2.9K66¢0.0¢$0-$1,890
Blues vs. PredatorsBlues140.850¢0.0¢$0-$70
Predators vs. AvalancheAvalanche17.566¢0.0¢$0-$12
Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?Yes2.2K16¢0.0¢$0-$344
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Yes346.26.0¢0.0¢$0-$21
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?No55542¢0.0¢$0-$233
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsInvictus Gaming1.7K2.6¢0.0¢$0-$43
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Yes638.516¢0.0¢$0-$100
Jets vs. CanadiensCanadiens3.4K61¢0.0¢$0-$2,071
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes852.544¢0.0¢$0-$373
Utah vs. SenatorsUtah55552¢0.0¢$0-$289
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Yes3.3K6.1¢0.0¢$0-$203
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?Yes6K20¢0.0¢$0-$1,204
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No1.8K9.0¢0.0¢$0-$163
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes91334¢0.0¢$0-$310
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?Yes2.4K29¢0.0¢$0-$692