Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $118.6K·Volume $3.3M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes14%No86%
Smart money leans
No
85% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$5,633 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$124
Smart money entered80¢85¢at 06:39Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$118.6K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $5,633 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$124 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $246 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $209 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $209 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $209 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $209 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $246 |
| 2d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $1,212 |
| 3d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $104 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $935 |
| 3d ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $4,304 |
| 3d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $29 |
| 3d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $13 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $118 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $174 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $774 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $26 |
| 5d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,200 |
| 5d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 84¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,945 |
| 6d ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $870 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 86¢ | $400 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $519 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $673 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $158 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $455 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $3,047 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | siickMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $132 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $2,334 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115Mid | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $319 |
| 1w ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,699 |