Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $33.1K·Volume $79.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,841 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered94¢100¢at 07:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$33.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,841 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 94¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,841 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:11
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.6¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.6¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.5¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.3¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.2¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.2¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.1¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.9¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.9¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.5¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 7.9¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.5¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.4¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.7¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.4¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $67 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $89 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $95 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $23 |