Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $284.1K·Volume $8.8M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
Yes
3% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.3pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
3%price3%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$10.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$250
72h +$703
Smart money entered2.8¢2.6¢at 18:44(0% priced in)Edge left+0.3ppLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$284.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $10.1K riding on it.
The price of 3% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 2.8¢; the price was 2.6¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $10.1K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$250, +$703 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 8h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $14 |
| 8h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $14 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $26 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $26 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $13 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $13 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $14 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $14 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $29 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $29 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $29 |
| 18h ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $29 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $220 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $212 |
| 2d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $12 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $3 |