Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $577.5K·Volume $19.2M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
92% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
79%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
92%price92%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$72.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢92¢at 03:42(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$577.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $72.8K riding on it.
The price of 92% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 92¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $72.8K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | thebug44Mid | Sell | Yes | 8.1¢ | $4 |
| 5h ago | thebug44Mid | Sell | Yes | 8.1¢ | $218 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 6.7¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $70 |
| 1w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $190 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,640 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,351 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $621 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $853 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $590 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $87 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $103 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,394 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $215 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $41 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $146 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $4,360 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $99 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $6,498 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $3,976 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $389 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $204 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $338 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,856 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $589 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,795 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $617 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $278 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $352 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $34 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $9,070 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $7,636 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1,028 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1,993 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 9.1¢ | $433 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $91 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $182 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $273 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | ZaratustraMid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $53 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $65 |