Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?
ActiveLiquidity $2,722·Volume $125.2K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes6%No94%
Smart money leans
Yes
5% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
88%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
5%price5%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$584 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered12¢5.3¢at 06:31(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$2,722
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $584 riding on it.
The price of 5% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 12¢; the price was 5.3¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $584 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.2¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $3 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | Yes | 3.3¢ | $223 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $67 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.6¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.7¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $108 |
| 6d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $66 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.9¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.7¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $8 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.4¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $4 |