Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $338.5K·Volume $1.1M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,053 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered1.2¢0.9¢at 02:18(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$338.5K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,053 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.2¢; the price was 0.9¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,053 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:18
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $577 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $703 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $141 |
| 12w ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 12w ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | Yes | 0.2¢ | $1 |
| 12w ago | DreamwireMid | Sell | Yes | 0.1¢ | $1 |