Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $10.4K·Volume $47.2K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:15Smart money exiting · $585 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$578 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$585
72h -$585
Smart money entered23¢97¢at 07:15Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $578 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 23¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot.
Warning: wallets that backed "Yes" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Note: only $578 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$585, -$585 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $297 |
| 13h ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 99¢ | $297 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $49 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $128 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $19 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $15 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $30 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $61 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $120 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $241 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $16 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $30 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $61 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $34 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $51 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 42¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $99 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 29¢ | $658 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 30¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $69 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $12 |