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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?

ActiveLiquidity $10.4K·Volume $47.2K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:15Smart money exiting · $585 sold 24hcomputed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$578 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$585
72h -$585
Smart money entered23¢97¢at 07:15Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $578 riding on it.

The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 23¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot.

Warning: wallets that backed "Yes" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.

Note: only $578 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$585, -$585 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
13h agoG.HchenTopSellYes99¢$297
13h agoG.HchenTopSellYes99¢$297
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes99¢$49
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$128
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$5
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$10
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$19
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$8
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$15
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$30
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$61
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$120
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes98¢$241
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes97¢$27
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes97¢$8
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes97¢$16
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes97¢$30
4d agoshiifooMidBuyYes97¢$61
6d agoshiifooMidBuyYes94¢$34
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes81¢$11
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes70¢$22
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes67¢$51
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes66¢$20
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes66¢$13
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo42¢$24
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes50¢$99
1w agoAddarashMidBuyYes37¢$22
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo67¢$3
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo67¢$4
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo67¢$8
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo67¢$3
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo67¢$16
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo66¢$7
1w agoshiifooMidBuyYes20¢$4
1w agoAddarashMidSellYes29¢$658
1w agoAddarashMidSellYes24¢$5
1w agoAddarashMidSellYes25¢$29
1w agoAddarashMidSellYes30¢$7
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo70¢$69
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo69¢$14
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo66¢$3
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$7
1w agothanksforplayinTopBuyYes32¢$10
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo80¢$16
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$4
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$8
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$10
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$8
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$6
1w agoshiifooMidBuyNo74¢$12