Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $464.9K·Volume $1.5M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$375 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered0.2¢1.7¢at 00:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$464.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $375 riding on it.
The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 0.2¢; the price was 1.7¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $375 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:10
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $78 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.1¢ | $140 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $30 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $218 |
| 5w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 0.3¢ | $29 |
| 6w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $189 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 10w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 0.2¢ | $0 |