Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?
ActiveLiquidity $10.9K·Volume $47.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
73%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$980 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered70¢97¢at 07:36(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$10.9K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $980 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $980 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:36
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 1.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | pagliacci4Mid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $374 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 8.8¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $509 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $61 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $575 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $131 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $118 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $39 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $23 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $335 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $38 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 76¢ | $1,653 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $12 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $47 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $358 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $129 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $157 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $28 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $250 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $134 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $29 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $70 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $45 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $185 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $98 |